Expected New Moons and Appointed Times for 2014

Listed below are the computations for 2014 for the expected dates of New Moon visibility from Israel. The possible projected dates for the Appointed Times for 2014 are given in a second table below the New Moons table.

PLEASE NOTE: The "Date of Visibility" column dates are the dates on which the New Moon is expected to be seen--beginning at sunset of the listed day. All dates listed are to be reckoned from sunset of listed day and date through the next day at sunset in the following New Moon table.

**2014/2015 New Moon Data**
New Moon	Date of Visibility	Sunset	Moon Set	Lag Time	% of Illum.	Moon Alt.	Sun Alt.	VN	Sighted?
11th	Thursday, January 2, 2014	4:47	6:12	85 min.	2.23%	15.1	-16.8	183.6	Yes
12th	Friday, January 31, 2014*	5:12	6:05	53 min.	1.00%	9:54	-10.7	109.5	Clouds
13th	Sunday, March 2, 2014	5:37	7:02	85 min.	2.51%	16.3	-18.0	195.6	Haze
1st	Monday, March 31, 2014*	6:58	7:49	51 min	1.01%	9.61	-10.9	109.1	Yes
2nd	Wednesday, April 30 2014	7:18	8:34	76 min.	2.32%	14.1	-14.8	170.8	Yes
3rd	Friday, May 30, 2014	7:38	9:03	85 min.	3.84%	15.7	-14.9	205.6	Yes
4th	Sunday, June 29, 2014*	7:49	9:07	78 min.	5:33%	15.0	-13.7	219.2	Yes
5th	Monday, July 28, 2014	7:39	8:20	41 min.	2.90%	7.48	-7.78	117.3	Yes
6th	Wednesday, August 27, 2014	7:09	8:01	52 min.	3.97%	9.77	10.6	156.3	Yes
7th	Friday, September 26, 2014*	6:31	7:47	76 min.	5.51%	14.2	-16.2	226.1	Yes
8th	Saturday, October 25, 2014	5:56	7:08	72 min.	3.19%	12.9	-15.1	179.1	Yes
9th	Sunday, November 23, 2014	4:36	5:40	64 min.	1.57%	11.0	-12.7	135.4	Clouds
10th	Tuesday, December 23, 2014	4:40	6:25	105 min.	3.46%	18.4	-20.9	237.7	Yes
11th	Wednesday, January 21, 2015	5:03	6:19	76 min.	1.86%	13.8	-15.4	164.2	Yes
12th	Friday, February 20, 2015*	5:29	7:20	111 min.	4.18%	21.5	-23.5	270.4	Yes

* Friday, January 31, 2015 - It is possible that the moon may not be visible until the next evening. Here are the stats for that date: On Saturday evening (February 1), we expect a 5:13 pm sunset & 7:13 pm moon set (therefore, a lag time of 120 minutes), a 4.63% of illumination, with a lunar altitude at sunset of 22.8 degrees and a solar altitude of -24.9 at moonset. VN = 291.4

* Monday, March 31, 2015 - It is possible that the moon may not be visible until the next evening. Here are the stats for that date: On Tuesday evening (April 1), we expect a 5:58 pm sunset & 7:51 pm moon set (therefore, a lag time of 113 minutes), a 4.41% of illumination, with a lunar altitude at sunset of 21.9 degrees and a solar altitude of -23.2 at moonset. VN = 275.6

* Sunday, June 29, 2014 - The moon may possibly be visible one evening earlier, but most likely not. Here are the stats for that date: On Saturdayday evening (June 28), we expect a 7:49 pm sunset & 8:28 pm moon set (therefore, a lag time of 39 minutes), a 1.94% of illumination, with a lunar altitude at sunset of 6.83 degrees and a solar altitude of -7.02 at moonset. VN = 96.52

* Friday, September 26, 2014 - The moon may possibly be visible one evening earlier, but most likely not. Here are the stats for that date: On Thursday evening (September 25), we expect a 6:32 pm sunset & 7:10 pm moon set (therefore, a lag time of 38 minutes), a 1.86% of illumination, with a lunar altitude at sunset of 6.96 degrees and a solar altitude of -8.22 at moonset. VN = 98.59

* Friday, February 20, 2015 - The moon may possibly be visible one evening earlier, but most likely not. Here are the stats for that date: On Thursday evening (February 19), we expect a 5:29 pm sunset & 6:11 pm moon set (therefore, a lag time of 42 minutes), a 0.72% of illumination, with a lunar altitude at sunset of 7.83 degrees and a solar altitude of -9.05 at moonset. VN = 88.11

**2014 Appointed Times (March 31st/April 1st New Year)**
Event	begins sunset of	ends sunset of
Passover (Lord's Supper) Aviv 14	Tuesday, April 13	Monday, April 14
Feast of Unleavens (1st day)	Tuesday, April 14	Wednesday, April 15
Elevation Sheaf Day (aka "wave sheaf")	Saturday, April 19	Sunday, April 20
Feast of Unleavens (7th day)	Sunday, April 20	Monday, April 21
Pentecost	Saturday, June 7	Sunday, June 8
Day of Shouting (aka "Trumpets")	Friday, September 26	Saturday, September 27
Day of Atonement	Sunday, October 5	Monday, October 6
Feast of Tabernacles (1st day)	Friday, October 10	Saturday, October 11
8th Day Assembly	Friday, October 17	Saturday, October 18

Understanding the Calculations

Visibility Number (VN) is the difference between the sun and moon setting times plus 27 times the illuminated percent of the moon plus 5.5 times the altitude of the moon at sunset minus 5 times the altitude of the sun at moonset, all divided by 1.7.

If the VN is:

* less than 88 then the New Moon will not be seen
* between 88 and 100, it will probably not be seen
* between 100 and 112, it will probably be seen
* anything greater than 112, it will be seen in reasonable conditions.

EXAMPLE: The sun will set in Jerusalem at 6:37. The moon will set at 7:36. This is a 59 minute lag time (lag time = the time between sunset and moonset) -- plenty of time for the sky to darken enough after sunset for the moon to be sighted. 2.39% of the lunar surface will be illuminated. And the moon's altitude at sunset will be 11.4 degrees. The sun's altitude at moonset will be -12.6 degrees.

So using the calculations, we have 59 [lag time] + (27 x 2.39 = 64.53) [27 times illuminated percent] + (5.5 x 11.4 = 62.7) [5.5 times lunar altitude] - (5 x -12.6 = -63) [5 times sun's altitude] divided by 1.7 = 146.6

As seen above, anything over 112 should be visible (the higher the number, the greater the visibility), and we have a VN of 146.6 -- hence, New Moon!

Email: Brian Hoeck

©2014-2015 Truth On The Web Ministries: All the articles originated by Kenneth Hoeck and/or Brian Hoeck may be freely distributed or mirrored as long as presented in their entirety (including this statement), attributed to Truth on The Web, and proper author credit given.

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