Expected New Moons and Appointed Times for 2015

Listed below are the computations for 2015 for the expected dates of New Moon visibility from Israel. The possible projected dates for the Appointed Times for 2015 are given in a second table below the New Moons table.

PLEASE NOTE: The "Date of Visibility" column dates are the dates on which the New Moon is expected to be seen--beginning at sunset of the listed day. All dates listed are to be reckoned from sunset of listed day and date through the next day at sunset in the following New Moon table.

**2015/2016 New Moon Data**
New Moon	Date of Visibility	Sunset	Moon Set	Lag Time	% of Illum.	Moon Alt.	Sun Alt.	VN	Sighted?
11th	Wednesday, January 21, 2015	4:54	6:32	98 min.	3.08 %	17.7	-19.8	222.3	Yes
12th	Friday, February 20, 2015*	5:20	6:25	65 min.	1.47 %	12.0	-13.5	140.0	Yes
1st	Saturday, March 21, 2015	5:51	7:12	81 min.	2.39 %	15.6	-21.4	245.0	Yes
2nd	Sunday, April 19, 2015*	6:10	7:02	75 min.	1.17 %	9.40	-5.4	172.0	4/20
3rd	Tuesday, May 19, 2015	5:51	7:12	81 min.	1.34 %	8.48	-9.15	103.3	Yes
4th	Thursday, June 18, 2015*	6:42	8:00	98 min.	3.65 %	14.3	-13.6	190.1	Yes
5th	Friday, July 17, 2015	6:48	7:32	44 min.	2.08 %	7.85	-7.99	107.8	Yes
6th	Sunday, August 16, 2015	6:33	7:33	66 min.	3.71 %.	11.6	-11.6	165.9	Yes
7th	Tuesday, September 15, 2015*	6:01	6:43	42 min.	1.69 %	7.69	-8.63	101.8	Yes
8th	Wednesday, October 14, 2015	5:22	6:23	61 min.	2.56 %	11.5	-13.0	152.2	Yes
9th	Friday, November 13, 2015*	4:49	6:12	83 min.	3.33 %	14.9	-17.3	200.8	Yes
10th	Saturday, December 12, 2015	4:35	5:35	60 min.	1.27 %	10.4	-11.8	123.8	clouded
11th	Monday, January 11, 2016	4:54	6:32	98 min.	3.08 %	17.7	-19.8	222.3	Yes
12th	Tuesday, February 9, 2016	5:20	6:25	65 min.	1.47 %	12.0	-13.5	140.0	Yes
13th/1st	Thursday, March 10, 2016	5:44	7:25	41 min	3.71 %	19.7	-21.4	245.0	Yes

* Friday, February 20, 2015 - The moon may possibly be visible one evening earlier, but most likely not. Here are the stats for that date: On Thursday evening (February 19), we expect a 5:29 pm sunset & 6:11 pm moon set (therefore, a lag time of 42 minutes), a 0.72% of illumination, with a lunar altitude at sunset of 7.83 degrees and a solar altitude of -9.05 at moonset. VN = 88.11

* Sunday, April 19, 2015 - It is possible that the moon may not be visible until the next evening. Here are the stats for that date: On Monday evening (April 20), we expect a 6:11 pm sunset & 8:06 pm moon set (therefore, a lag time of 115 minutes), a 4.99% of illumination, with a lunar altitude at sunset of 22.1 degrees and a solar altitude of -22.4 at moonset. VN = 284.3

* Thursday, June 18, 2015 -The moon may possibly be visible one evening earlier, but most likely not. Here are the stats for that date: On Wednesday evening (June 17), we expect a 6:46 pm sunset & 7:25 pm moon set (therefore, a lag time of 41 minutes), a 1.62% of illumination, with a lunar altitude at sunset of 6.69 degrees and a solar altitude of -6.95 at moonset. VN = 90.73

* Tuesday, September 15, 2016 - It is possible that the moon may not be visible until the next evening. Here are the stats for that date: On Wednesday evening (September 16), we expect a 6:00 pm sunset & 7:17 pm moon set (therefore, a lag time of 77 minutes), a 5.16% of illumination, with a lunar altitude at sunset of 14.9 degrees and a solar altitude of -15.8 at moonset. VN = 221.7

* Friday, November 13, 2016 - It is possible that the moon may not be visible until the next evening. Here are the stats for that date: On Saturday evening (November 14), we expect a 6:00 pm sunset & 7:17 pm moon set (therefore, a lag time of 77 minutes), a 5.16% of illumination, with a lunar altitude at sunset of 14.9 degrees and a solar altitude of -15.8 at moonset. VN = 221.7

**2015 Appointed Times (March 21st New Year)**
Event	begins sunset of	ends sunset of
Passover (Lord's Supper) Aviv 14	Friday, April 3	Saturday, April 4
Feast of Unleavens (1st day)	Saturday, April 4	Sunday, April 5
Elevation Sheaf Day (aka "wave sheaf")	Saturday, April 4	Sunday, April 5
Feast of Unleavens (7th day)	Friday, April 10	Saturday, April 11
Pentecost	Saturday, May 23	Sunday, May 24
Day of Shouting (aka "Trumpets")	Tuesday, September 15	Wednesday, September 16
Day of Atonement	Thursday, September 24	Friday, September 25
Feast of Tabernacles (1st day)	Tuesday, September 29	Wednesday, September 30
8th Day Assembly	Tuesday, October 5	Wednesday, October 6

Understanding the Calculations

Visibility Number (VN) is the difference between the sun and moon setting times plus 27 times the illuminated percent of the moon plus 5.5 times the altitude of the moon at sunset minus 5 times the altitude of the sun at moonset, all divided by 1.7.

If the VN is:

* less than 88 then the New Moon will not be seen
* between 88 and 100, it will probably not be seen
* between 100 and 112, it will probably be seen
* anything greater than 112, it will be seen in reasonable conditions.

EXAMPLE: The sun will set in Jerusalem at 6:37. The moon will set at 7:36. This is a 59 minute lag time (lag time = the time between sunset and moonset) -- plenty of time for the sky to darken enough after sunset for the moon to be sighted. 2.39% of the lunar surface will be illuminated. And the moon's altitude at sunset will be 11.4 degrees. The sun's altitude at moonset will be -12.6 degrees.

So using the calculations, we have 59 [lag time] + (27 x 2.39 = 64.53) [27 times illuminated percent] + (5.5 x 11.4 = 62.7) [5.5 times lunar altitude] - (5 x -12.6 = -63) [5 times sun's altitude] divided by 1.7 = 146.6

As seen above, anything over 112 should be visible (the higher the number, the greater the visibility), and we have a VN of 146.6 -- hence, New Moon!

Email: Brian Hoeck

©2015-2016 Truth On The Web Ministries: All the articles originated by Kenneth Hoeck and/or Brian Hoeck may be freely distributed or mirrored as long as presented in their entirety (including this statement), attributed to Truth on The Web, and proper author credit given.

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